What Can Statistics Tell You About Your Golf Game?

A few days ago, I had the opportunity to Golf Talk with a young golfer – 12 years old – who was wondering if shooting 85 on a par 72 course with one and a half years experience was a good score. My response to him was that it was FANTASTIC. In fact, I told him, most amateur golfers around the country would kill to shoot 85. Too many consistently score over 100 for 18 holes, no matter what they say when they talk about golf.

My new friend was delighted to hear that those few “stats” probably placed him in the top 20% of amateur golfers. The whole conversation illustrated to me, once again, how few statistics most of us know about the average golfer. That keeps us from having a realistic perspective on our own game. So, I decided to do a little research.

In 1990 L.J. Riccio, Ph.D., a statistical analyst in New York, analyzed golfers ranging in ability from Jack Nicklaus to players with a 35 handicap. His findings are very enlightening. If you are willing to risk brain warp, you can actually predict your average score by the number of greens you hit in regulation (GIR). For example, if you can reach 5 greens out of 18 in regulation consistently, you will have an average score of 85, like my young – 12 year old - friend. Do you know how many people who have been playing for 20 years would LOVE to shoot 85? And he’s doing it at 12!

In case you don’t know what hitting greens in regulation means, golf courses are designed for two putts on the green. That means that on a par-3 hole you are expected to put the ball on the green with your tee shot, leaving you two shots or putts to get it in the hole. If your tee shot lands on the green, you “hit the green in regulation”. On a par-4 hole, you need to put your second – or approach – shot on the green in order to hit it in regulation, and have two putts to hole it for par. A par-5 hole would, of course, require your third shot to land the green to be there in regulation.

According to Dr. Riccio, a player who has a GIR average of 12 (being on the green in regulation on 12 of 18 holes) is going to score 71 consistently. (They are usually called Pro’s.) Those of us who never hit a green in regulation can expect scores of 95 and up.

Want to lower your scores? Hit your tee shots straight enough - and long enough - to give yourself a chance at landing your approach shots on the green in regulation. That doesn’t mean we have to crush a driver 250 or 300 yards out, but we do have to keep it in the fairway to be close enough to reach the green with an iron or hi-brid. Sometimes, we can actually make up for a weak drive with a strong approach shot…if the tee shot stays on the fairway. Straight is a good thing.

Oh, yeah, in order to score that 85, my friend had to keep it in the fairway 46% of the time, be accurate with one out of three iron shots (33%) and have an average of 34 putts for 18 holes. That means he hit it straight on 8 or 9 fairways, hit 5 greens in regulation, and had fourteen 2-putts and four 1-putts for the round. (Don’t doubt yourself on those 1-putts – Remember, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.)

By the way, it really helps to know how far you hit each of your irons or fairway woods. If you don’t, how will you know which golf club to pull to go for the green…in regulation?

So, what is Dr. Riccio telling us? My interpretation of his study is that we really need to focus our golf time and energy on getting as good as we can with our short irons and putter. How many times have you given back the drive of your life with three more shots to reach the green and, then, have a two or three putt? Personally, I can’t count that high.

As much as we all hate it, the answer is practice, practice, practice.

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Hit ‘em Long, Straight and Often!

Contact: darabbitt@gmail.com

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